FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.19 – 178.5

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±13.3

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -0.08Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 52.56Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 2.71Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.9 ±10

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 47.44Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 97.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 33.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11461, 5695, 9679

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11461, 5695, 9679

Auto

24.0 42%

Teleop

28.0 49%

Endgame

4.7 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8352, 503, 5531

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8352, 503, 5531

Auto

36.2 20%

Teleop

98.5 55%

Endgame

43.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.2pts

Blue projected score178.5pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.3
Score range: 28–206
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.3Season APEX428.9

24Auto36.2

28Teleop98.5

4.7Endgame43.5

46Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	38
teleop	14	191
endgame	24	48
foul	0	0
total	50	277

Result

Final score

50 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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