FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.85 – 163.84

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 27 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±12.2

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 41.64Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 102.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 4.2Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±11.7

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 31.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 5.68Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 126.98Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9558, 247, 6096

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 247, 6096

Auto

42.2 29%

Teleop

71.6 50%

Endgame

30.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10690, 9727, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10690, 9727, 51

Auto

21.5 13%

Teleop

84.4 52%

Endgame

55.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.9pts

Blue projected score163.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16
Score range: 121–191
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.8Season APEX369.7

42.2Auto21.5

71.6Teleop84.4

30.8Endgame55.4

42Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	54
teleop	51	39
endgame	49	38
foul	15	5
total	174	136

Result

Final score

174 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 27 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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