FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.84 – 151.5

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364 ±12.4

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 8.29Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 10.11Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 123.44Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±11.7

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 15.41Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 105.23Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 30.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5239, 4758, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5239, 4758, 2960

Auto

33.3 24%

Teleop

74.8 53%

Endgame

32.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6566, 10349, 2591

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6566, 10349, 2591

Auto

27.3 19%

Teleop

80.1 55%

Endgame

38.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.8pts

Blue projected score151.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.7
Score range: 115–179
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364Season APEX296.8

33.3Auto27.3

74.8Teleop80.1

32Endgame38.8

34Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	22
teleop	78	129
endgame	50	37
foul	0	0
total	143	188

Result

Final score

143 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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