FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.13 – 165.25

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.4 ±12.2

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 30.73Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 2.27Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 63.13Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.4 ±11.7

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 36.85Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 110.74Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11473Wixom Christian Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 17.66Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3619, 2224, 2673

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 2224, 2673

Auto

25.0 29%

Teleop

29.1 33%

Endgame

32.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 217, 7188, 11473

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 217, 7188, 11473

Auto

21.4 13%

Teleop

91.0 56%

Endgame

49.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.1pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.1
Score range: 69–192
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 148.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.4Season APEX300.4

25Auto21.4

29.1Teleop91

32.9Endgame49.6

13Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	45
teleop	20	103
endgame	15	1
foul	0	25
total	52	174

Result

Final score

52 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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