FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.17 – 154.74

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±11.7

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 29.6Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 110.41Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 24.16Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.4 ±11.1

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 102.06Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 22.13Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 30.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6616, 818, 3096

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 818, 3096

Auto

21.6 14%

Teleop

85.9 54%

Endgame

50.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8280, 3667, 5756

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8280, 3667, 5756

Auto

43.4 30%

Teleop

74.5 51%

Endgame

27.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.4
Score range: 128–191
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.1Season APEX301.4

21.6Auto43.4

85.9Teleop74.5

50.5Endgame27.8

53Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	129	146
endgame	68	49
foul	0	25
total	217	245

Result

Final score

217 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 71.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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