FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.82 – 202.36

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.4 ±12.7

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 36.7Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 50.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 3.13Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.9 ±11.2

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 38.63Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 174.48Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -10.75Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5531, 7196, 5642

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 7196, 5642

Auto

16.1 17%

Teleop

53.0 55%

Endgame

26.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8352, 1701, 11461

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8352, 1701, 11461

Auto

49.0 24%

Teleop

120.3 58%

Endgame

39.2 19%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.8pts

Blue projected score202.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.5
Score range: 65–228
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.4Season APEX457.9

16.1Auto49

53Teleop120.3

26.8Endgame39.2

27Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	59
teleop	38	180
endgame	26	59
foul	0	0
total	85	298

Result

Final score

85 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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