FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.78 – 57.47

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±11.7

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 88.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 10.42Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 43.2Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124.6 ±13.3

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 35.82Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 17.47Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 4.18Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 247, 11457, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 247, 11457, 217

Auto

28.7 20%

Teleop

79.9 55%

Endgame

37.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5756, 6096, 5642

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5756, 6096, 5642

Auto

11.0 20%

Teleop

25.6 46%

Endgame

18.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.8pts

Blue projected score57.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.3
Score range: 27–172
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.1Season APEX124.6

28.7Auto11

79.9Teleop25.6

37.3Endgame18.7

79Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	6
teleop	78	13
endgame	51	8
foul	0	0
total	146	27

Result

Final score

146 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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