FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.45 – 132.91

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.1 ±11.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 99.42Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 26.67Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX -3.64Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.4 ±12

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 10.19Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 26.96Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 95.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 10690, 11457

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10349, 10690, 11457

Auto

25.3 24%

Teleop

55.1 52%

Endgame

24.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6566, 2048, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6566, 2048, 503

Auto

27.2 20%

Teleop

71.9 54%

Endgame

34.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.5pts

Blue projected score132.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 96–159
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.1Season APEX356.4

25.3Auto27.2

55.1Teleop71.9

24.9Endgame34.3

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	53
teleop	102	70
endgame	56	25
foul	0	35
total	188	183

Result

Final score

188 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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