Qualification · Qualification 58
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
189.9 – 138.87
65%35%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
217 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 25 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±11
Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 36.16Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 28.03Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 125.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.2 ±12.8
Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 22.36Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 11.52Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 131Event APEX 104.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 217, 2591, 1025
73
/ 100 compatProjected
189.9 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 217, 2591, 1025
Auto
22.4 12%
Teleop
112.2 62%
Endgame
45.5 25%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5901, 5239, 247
59
/ 100 compatProjected
138.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5901, 5239, 247
Auto
23.9 18%
Teleop
78.4 58%
Endgame
32.4 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score189.9pts
Blue projected score138.9pts
Red win probability65%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 51
- Score range
- 113–216
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
312.9Season APEX249.2
22.4Auto23.9
112.2Teleop78.4
45.5Endgame32.4
46Consistency26
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 24 | 30 |
| teleop | 122 | 58 |
| endgame | 71 | 23 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 217 | 116 |
Result
Final score
217 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 25 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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