FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.05 – 50.11

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362 ±11.7

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 30.7Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 129.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 50.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.8 ±12.7

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 4.73Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11473Wixom Christian Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 17.46Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 27.92Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7716, 2960, 9558

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7716, 2960, 9558

Auto

49.2 25%

Teleop

110.1 55%

Endgame

41.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9679, 11473, 6616

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 11473, 6616

Auto

21.8 41%

Teleop

16.5 31%

Endgame

15.0 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.1pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.9
Score range: 24–237
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362Season APEX156.8

49.2Auto21.8

110.1Teleop16.5

41Endgame15

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	24
teleop	90	27
endgame	10	16
foul	0	0
total	159	67

Result

Final score

159 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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