FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.44 – 161.35

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.8 ±12.4

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 8.03Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 31.13Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 121.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.8 ±11.7

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 1Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 50Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 110.35Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4758, 9212, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4758, 9212, 51

Auto

10.0 6%

Teleop

100.5 60%

Endgame

56.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2224, 5695, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 5695, 7188

Auto

39.2 26%

Teleop

78.7 52%

Endgame

33.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.4pts

Blue projected score161.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.9
Score range: 134–187
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.8Season APEX294.8

10Auto39.2

100.5Teleop78.7

56.1Endgame33.1

49Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	33
teleop	100	103
endgame	73	54
foul	0	0
total	204	190

Result

Final score

204 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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