FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.36 – 99.9

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 103.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.1 ±12.4

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 51.29Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 115.88Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 40.19Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.6 ±12.4

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX -3.39Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 102.65Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 0.64Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3619, 8280, 4851

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 8280, 4851

Auto

41.1 21%

Teleop

110.6 56%

Endgame

44.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6096, 818, 9727

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6096, 818, 9727

Auto

19.4 22%

Teleop

44.2 49%

Endgame

26.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.4pts

Blue projected score99.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.5
Score range: 74–233
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.1Season APEX293.6

41.1Auto19.4

110.6Teleop44.2

44.2Endgame26.2

32Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	34
teleop	23	82
endgame	18	49
foul	0	0
total	66	165

Result

Final score

66 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 103.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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