FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.54 – 160.76

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 96.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.5 ±12.7

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 13.69Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 18.36Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 13.49Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.4 ±10.7

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 22.6Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 56.95Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 81.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2591, 3667, 3096

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2591, 3667, 3096

Auto

15.4 39%

Teleop

10.3 26%

Endgame

13.7 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5756, 2673, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5756, 2673, 503

Auto

32.0 21%

Teleop

83.4 54%

Endgame

38.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.5pts

Blue projected score160.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.2
Score range: 20–187
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.5Season APEX359.4

15.4Auto32

10.3Teleop83.4

13.7Endgame38.4

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	50
teleop	55	156
endgame	49	60
foul	0	0
total	133	266

Result

Final score

133 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 96.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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