Qualification · Qualification 50
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
112.79 – 34.77
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
91 – 84
Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±11.7
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 97.31Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 8.92Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 6.56Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.9 ±12.8
Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 30.26Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 69.2Event APEX -7.13Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46Event APEX 11.64Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10349, 9679, 5642
55
/ 100 compatProjected
112.8 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 10349, 9679, 5642
Auto
23.9 21%
Teleop
59.5 52%
Endgame
30.3 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4851, 2224, 3096
10
/ 100 compatProjected
34.8 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4851, 2224, 3096
Auto
27.8 76%
Teleop
-0.8 0%
Endgame
9.5 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score112.8pts
Blue projected score34.8pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 78
- Score range
- 9–139
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
289Season APEX168.9
23.9Auto27.8
59.5Teleop-0.8
30.3Endgame9.5
23Consistency21
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 18 |
| teleop | 53 | 23 |
| endgame | 6 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 91 | 84 |
Result
Final score
91 – 84
Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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