FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.59 – 119.07

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±12

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 131.77Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 12.88Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 18.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±12.2

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 37.21Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 21.89Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 59.97Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 503, 3096, 3619

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 503, 3096, 3619

Auto

27.1 17%

Teleop

82.8 52%

Endgame

49.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6616, 4851, 8352

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 4851, 8352

Auto

26.9 23%

Teleop

66.8 57%

Endgame

23.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.6pts

Blue projected score119.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.5
Score range: 89–194
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.9Season APEX221.4

27.1Auto26.9

82.8Teleop66.8

49.9Endgame23.9

46Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	27
teleop	35	43
endgame	55	15
foul	0	0
total	110	85

Result

Final score

110 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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