FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.89 – 193.76

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

254 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.3 ±11.7

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 45.98Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 8.17Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 114.74Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±11.1

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 41.43Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 43.61Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 108.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3619, 5756, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 5756, 51

Auto

21.3 14%

Teleop

76.8 49%

Endgame

57.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9558, 2673, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 2673, 8280

Auto

46.6 25%

Teleop

111.4 59%

Endgame

31.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.9pts

Blue projected score193.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.9
Score range: 143–220
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.3Season APEX307

21.3Auto46.6

76.8Teleop111.4

57.9Endgame31

80Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	65
teleop	153	131
endgame	67	64
foul	0	30
total	254	290

Result

Final score

254 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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