FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.02 – 55.28

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.2 ±11.7

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX -4.88Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 34.5Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 26.4Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.9 ±13.3

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 43.66Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 13.76Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX -2.14Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9727, 217, 8352

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9727, 217, 8352

Auto

8.3 14%

Teleop

29.5 50%

Endgame

21.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6616, 6566, 11457

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 6566, 11457

Auto

14.2 25%

Teleop

24.2 42%

Endgame

18.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56pts

Blue projected score55.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.7
Score range: 29–82
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.2Season APEX145.9

8.3Auto14.2

29.5Teleop24.2

21.2Endgame18.8

91Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	31	0
endgame	34	0
foul	0	0
total	93	23

Result

Final score

93 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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