FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.97 – 200.5

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 104.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.6 ±10

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 60.12Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 93.53Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 24.32Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±11.7

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 9.81Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 149.32Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 41.37Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 503, 247, 7196

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 503, 247, 7196

Auto

38.5 21%

Teleop

103.1 56%

Endgame

41.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9679, 2960, 4851

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 2960, 4851

Auto

37.1 19%

Teleop

123.5 63%

Endgame

36.4 18%

Strengths

· 2960 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178pts

Blue projected score200.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.5
Score range: 152–227
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.6Season APEX360.5

38.5Auto37.1

103.1Teleop123.5

41.8Endgame36.4

92Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	65
teleop	207	60
endgame	76	41
foul	0	0
total	353	166

Result

Final score

353 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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