FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.28 – 44.1

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.6 ±12.8

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 98.12Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 9.55Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX -1.39Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±13.9

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.04Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 40.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -10.22Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7188, 6566, 6096

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 6566, 6096

Auto

19.4 19%

Teleop

57.7 57%

Endgame

24.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5239, 2048, 11461

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5239, 2048, 11461

Auto

19.5 41%

Teleop

12.4 26%

Endgame

16.2 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.3pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.2
Score range: 19–131
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 140.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.6Season APEX190.6

19.4Auto19.5

57.7Teleop12.4

24.9Endgame16.2

106Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	110	15
endgame	26	9
foul	0	0
total	157	40

Result

Final score

157 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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