Qualification · Qualification 42
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
105.9 – 176.26
29%71%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
44 – 190
Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.8 ±13.3
Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 43.07Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 39.97Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 22.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 92.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48Event APEX 43.62Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 40.51Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5901, 9212, 2591
43
/ 100 compatProjected
105.9 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 5901, 9212, 2591
Auto
1.9 2%
Teleop
75.8 71%
Endgame
29.4 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 818, 3619, 10690
75
/ 100 compatProjected
176.3 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 818, 3619, 10690
Auto
16.0 10%
Teleop
80.2 50%
Endgame
64.3 40%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score105.9pts
Blue projected score176.3pts
Red win probability29%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -70.4
- Score range
- 81–201
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
161.8Season APEX314.7
1.9Auto16
75.8Teleop80.2
29.4Endgame64.3
23Consistency154
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 43 |
| teleop | 22 | 69 |
| endgame | 10 | 38 |
| foul | 0 | 40 |
| total | 44 | 190 |
Result
Final score
44 – 190
Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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