FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.06 – 183.74

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.1 ±11.7

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 95.66Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 39.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 31.64Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.1 ±11.2

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 19.2Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 19.14Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 145.4Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 51, 9558, 4851

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 51, 9558, 4851

Auto

42.3 26%

Teleop

77.6 49%

Endgame

40.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5642, 8352, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5642, 8352, 2960

Auto

19.9 11%

Teleop

118.5 65%

Endgame

43.3 24%

Strengths

· 2960 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.1pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.7
Score range: 142–209
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.1Season APEX396.1

42.3Auto19.9

77.6Teleop118.5

40Endgame43.3

64Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	35
teleop	118	139
endgame	73	38
foul	0	0
total	230	212

Result

Final score

230 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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