FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.13 – 106.32

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.4 ±12.2

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX -5.81Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.47Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 19.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.4 ±12.7

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 12.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 50.12Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 43.25Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2224, 5239, 2591

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 5239, 2591

Auto

28.1 100%

Teleop

-6.3 0%

Endgame

2.2 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3667, 6616, 9212

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3667, 6616, 9212

Auto

10.5 10%

Teleop

64.0 59%

Endgame

33.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.1pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.2
Score range: 2–132
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.4Season APEX181.4

28.1Auto10.5

-6.3Teleop64

2.2Endgame33.4

114Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	2
teleop	13	47
endgame	14	43
foul	0	0
total	45	92

Result

Final score

45 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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