FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.87 – 159.58

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.9 ±12.2

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 94.72Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 61.47Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 31.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.9 ±10.2

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 25.09Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 52.01Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 82.48Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 247, 5531, 5695

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 247, 5531, 5695

Auto

32.8 17%

Teleop

99.6 52%

Endgame

58.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7716, 503, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7716, 503, 8280

Auto

29.7 18%

Teleop

100.2 62%

Endgame

32.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.9pts

Blue projected score159.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.3
Score range: 134–214
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.9Season APEX457.9

32.8Auto29.7

99.6Teleop100.2

58.3Endgame32.3

137Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	64
teleop	92	176
endgame	40	43
foul	10	5
total	188	288

Result

Final score

188 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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