FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.75 – 124.76

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.9 ±13.9

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 11.83Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 17.21Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 27.71Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±11

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 21.99Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 12.44Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 90.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11457, 9727, 7716

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11457, 9727, 7716

Auto

11.0 20%

Teleop

24.2 43%

Endgame

21.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2591, 8352, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2591, 8352, 247

Auto

29.3 24%

Teleop

74.6 60%

Endgame

20.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.8pts

Blue projected score124.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68
Score range: 32–150
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.9Season APEX283

11Auto29.3

24.2Teleop74.6

21.1Endgame20.7

77Consistency218

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	25
teleop	2	84
endgame	7	30
foul	0	0
total	21	139

Result

Final score

21 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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