FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.45 – 97.92

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.8 ±13.9

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 44.4Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX -9.81Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -14.14Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.2 ±11.7

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 58.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX -5.62Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 44.74Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3619, 6096, 11461

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 6096, 11461

Auto

5.7 22%

Teleop

13.5 52%

Endgame

6.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8280, 3096, 5531

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8280, 3096, 5531

Auto

22.2 22%

Teleop

46.5 47%

Endgame

30.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.4pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.5
Score range: -6–124
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.8Season APEX316.2

5.7Auto22.2

13.5Teleop46.5

6.8Endgame30.3

168Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	34
teleop	5	141
endgame	19	30
foul	0	0
total	39	205

Result

Final score

39 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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