FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.48 – 106.48

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±11.7

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 114.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 53.54Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 26.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±11.6

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 55.49Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 24.69Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 26.3Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2960, 5695, 2591

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2960, 5695, 2591

Auto

35.9 19%

Teleop

114.9 60%

Endgame

41.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7196, 2224, 10690

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7196, 2224, 10690

Auto

32.0 33%

Teleop

40.8 42%

Endgame

23.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.5pts

Blue projected score106.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88
Score range: 76–224
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.9Season APEX222

35.9Auto32

114.9Teleop40.8

41.1Endgame23.3

33Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	22
teleop	102	25
endgame	53	27
foul	25	15
total	223	89

Result

Final score

223 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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