FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.26 – 113.16

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±11.1

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 87.57Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 27Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 25.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177 ±13.9

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 34.21Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 74.85Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 4.1Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 6616, 9558

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10349, 6616, 9558

Auto

38.4 29%

Teleop

68.8 52%

Endgame

25.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5695, 9212, 6566

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5695, 9212, 6566

Auto

18.8 18%

Teleop

58.4 54%

Endgame

30.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.3pts

Blue projected score113.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.1
Score range: 87–166
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.2Season APEX177

38.4Auto18.8

68.8Teleop58.4

25.3Endgame30.1

64Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	14
teleop	120	37
endgame	72	20
foul	0	0
total	228	71

Result

Final score

228 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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