FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.94 – 194

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.1 ±11.7

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 38.94Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 15.01Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 92.99Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.3 ±10.2

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 85.28Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 48.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5901BattleCats

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 60.62Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2673, 5642, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2673, 5642, 51

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

90.2 62%

Endgame

36.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 818, 503, 5901

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 818, 503, 5901

Auto

23.4 13%

Teleop

118.7 68%

Endgame

32.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.9pts

Blue projected score194pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.1
Score range: 122–219
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 139.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.1Season APEX489.3

19.5Auto23.4

90.2Teleop118.7

36.9Endgame32.8

54Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	40
teleop	105	114
endgame	73	53
foul	0	0
total	190	207

Result

Final score

190 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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