FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.8 – 18.08

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.6 ±12.8

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 40.68Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 113.99Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 74.13Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±13.3

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX -10.26Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5695Heavy Duty Eagles

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 13.87Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4851, 1025, 9212

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4851, 1025, 9212

Auto

23.5 10%

Teleop

165.1 72%

Endgame

39.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9558, 11457, 5695

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9558, 11457, 5695

Auto

26.3 0%

Teleop

-30.2 100%

Endgame

1.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score228.8pts

Blue projected score18.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.7
Score range: -7–254
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 137.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.6Season APEX174.2

23.5Auto26.3

165.1Teleop-30.2

39.4Endgame1.3

31Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	44
teleop	124	32
endgame	58	17
foul	10	5
total	205	98

Result

Final score

205 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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