FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.49 – 92.01

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 80.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.2 ±13.9

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 27.7Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 36.88Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 49.91Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±12.7

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 32.16Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 11.84Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 48.01Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6566, 5642, 7716

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6566, 5642, 7716

Auto

9.9 9%

Teleop

78.5 69%

Endgame

26.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5531, 2591, 3619

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 2591, 3619

Auto

23.7 29%

Teleop

12.8 15%

Endgame

46.2 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.5pts

Blue projected score92pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.5
Score range: 67–139
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 139.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.2Season APEX184.6

9.9Auto23.7

78.5Teleop12.8

26Endgame46.2

14Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	3	113
endgame	6	30
foul	0	0
total	18	156

Result

Final score

18 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 80.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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