FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.81 – 163.15

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.4 ±10.5

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 37.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 58.51Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 98.5Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.6 ±9.5

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 48.64Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 85.69Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 28.82Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7196, 217, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7196, 217, 10349

Auto

22.2 12%

Teleop

91.5 48%

Endgame

77.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 503, 51, 3667

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 503, 51, 3667

Auto

32.2 19%

Teleop

72.6 44%

Endgame

60.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.8pts

Blue projected score163.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.7
Score range: 138–220
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.4Season APEX531.6

22.2Auto32.2

91.5Teleop72.6

77.4Endgame60.9

75Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	35
teleop	102	85
endgame	49	22
foul	0	0
total	175	142

Result

Final score

175 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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