FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.19 – 101.9

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.6 ±12.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX -3Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9727Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX -8.59Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 55.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.2 ±11.7

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -26.33Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 88.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 39.56Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2224, 9727, 2048

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 9727, 2048

Auto

17.7 50%

Teleop

3.0 9%

Endgame

14.5 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11461, 818, 2673

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11461, 818, 2673

Auto

36.8 40%

Teleop

57.2 62%

Endgame

-1.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.2pts

Blue projected score101.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.7
Score range: 19–127
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.6Season APEX315.2

17.7Auto36.8

3Teleop57.2

14.5Endgame-1.1

145Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	14
teleop	17	76
endgame	12	35
foul	0	5
total	56	130

Result

Final score

56 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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