FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.84 – 95.71

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342 ±12.4

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 129.53Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 17.59Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 7.72Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.5 ±12.7

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 18.36Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 29.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 48.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 51, 7716, 5239

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 51, 7716, 5239

Auto

25.9 17%

Teleop

78.5 51%

Endgame

48.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4758, 3667, 2673

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4758, 3667, 2673

Auto

17.4 19%

Teleop

43.8 47%

Endgame

32.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.8pts

Blue projected score95.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 66–185
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342Season APEX171.5

25.9Auto17.4

78.5Teleop43.8

48.9Endgame32.8

47Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	21
teleop	114	31
endgame	75	25
foul	0	0
total	210	77

Result

Final score

210 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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