FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.34 – 86.07

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±11.4

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 58.29Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX -4.4Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 63.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.9 ±11.2

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 89.66Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -3.99Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 0.4Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10690, 6096, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10690, 6096, 503

Auto

14.9 13%

Teleop

63.2 53%

Endgame

40.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 11461, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10349, 11461, 2224

Auto

10.2 12%

Teleop

38.0 46%

Endgame

34.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.3pts

Blue projected score86.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.3
Score range: 59–144
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.4Season APEX325.9

14.9Auto10.2

63.2Teleop38

40.6Endgame34.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	41
teleop	30	21
endgame	30	0
foul	0	0
total	73	62

Result

Final score

73 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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