FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211 – 144.76

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±11.1

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 19.84Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 24.38Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 166.78Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.2 ±11.2

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 80.98Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 26.62Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 37.16Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9679, 2591, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

211 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 2591, 1701

Auto

27.8 13%

Teleop

131.4 62%

Endgame

52.2 25%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 51, 2048, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 51, 2048, 217

Auto

23.3 16%

Teleop

81.2 55%

Endgame

42.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211pts

Blue projected score144.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.2
Score range: 119–237
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.9Season APEX419.2

27.8Auto23.3

131.4Teleop81.2

52.2Endgame42

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	29
teleop	93	94
endgame	27	95
foul	0	5
total	185	223

Result

Final score

185 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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