FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.48 – 139.07

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.1 ±13.3

3667Mecanum Knights

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 17.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 59.2Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 43.84Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332 ±11.7

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 42.45Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 26.39Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 70.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3667, 4851, 11457

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3667, 4851, 11457

Auto

21.7 19%

Teleop

59.2 52%

Endgame

33.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7716, 5531, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7716, 5531, 818

Auto

21.0 16%

Teleop

63.1 48%

Endgame

47.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.5pts

Blue projected score139.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.6
Score range: 94–165
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.1Season APEX332

21.7Auto21

59.2Teleop63.1

33Endgame47.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	27
teleop	25	98
endgame	11	55
foul	0	15
total	57	195

Result

Final score

57 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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