Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
22.75 – 24.79
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
84 – 60
Prediction missed · off by 48.2 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±12.7
Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 16.68Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 21.56Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -15.49Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.2 ±13.9
Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 31.82Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -15.49Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48Event APEX 8.46Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3667, 10690, 11461
20
/ 100 compatProjected
22.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 3667, 10690, 11461
Auto
8.4 52%
Teleop
2.2 13%
Endgame
5.7 35%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11457, 11473, 3619
15
/ 100 compatProjected
24.8 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 11457, 11473, 3619
Auto
6.5 27%
Teleop
0.8 3%
Endgame
16.6 69%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.57
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score22.7pts
Blue projected score24.8pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -2
- Score range
- -5–53
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
180.2Season APEX131.2
8.4Auto6.5
2.2Teleop0.8
5.7Endgame16.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 15 |
| teleop | 43 | 4 |
| endgame | 22 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 84 | 60 |
Result
Final score
84 – 60
Prediction missed · off by 48.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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