FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.6 – 73.71

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 64.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.1 ±12.7

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 61.76Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 13.55Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.6 ±12.8

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 7.71Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 24.29Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 41.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5239, 2673, 6616

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5239, 2673, 6616

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

49.2 50%

Endgame

32.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5642, 4851, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5642, 4851, 247

Auto

14.3 19%

Teleop

38.3 52%

Endgame

21.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score73.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 45–129
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.1Season APEX218.6

16.3Auto14.3

49.2Teleop38.3

32.7Endgame21.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	27
teleop	18	103
endgame	21	38
foul	0	0
total	65	168

Result

Final score

65 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 64.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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