FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.12 – 260.38

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±11.7

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 30.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9558The Steel Vipers

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 50.59Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 109.11Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.6 ±10.5

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 108.3Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 101.79Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 50.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2048, 9558, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2048, 9558, 818

Auto

46.6 27%

Teleop

78.2 45%

Endgame

47.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7188, 10349, 5531

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 10349, 5531

Auto

37.0 15%

Teleop

156.2 62%

Endgame

57.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.1pts

Blue projected score260.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.3
Score range: 160–290
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 167.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.8Season APEX446.6

46.6Auto37

78.2Teleop156.2

47.6Endgame57.5

80Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	16
teleop	60	112
endgame	16	96
foul	35	0
total	149	224

Result

Final score

149 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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