FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.1 – 343.48

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.3 ±10.5

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 112.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 30.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 133.3Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.4 ±8.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 23.58Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 130.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 189.04Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7188, 2591, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 2591, 51

Auto

34.2 13%

Teleop

153.4 57%

Endgame

81.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2224, 503, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 503, 1701

Auto

80.2 24%

Teleop

186.3 55%

Endgame

73.5 22%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score276.1pts

Blue projected score343.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.4
Score range: 246–373
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 166.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.3Season APEX604.4

34.2Auto80.2

153.4Teleop186.3

81.3Endgame73.5

45Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	90
teleop	113	209
endgame	34	81
foul	0	0
total	175	380

Result

Final score

175 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Match videos

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