FIM District Troy Event #2 presented by DTE Foundation

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

283.87 – 339.77

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.3 ±10.5

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 114.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 33.51Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 135.84Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.4 ±8.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 22.38Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 129.79Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 187.6Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7188, 2591, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 2591, 51

Auto

32.6 12%

Teleop

165.6 60%

Endgame

79.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2224, 503, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 503, 1701

Auto

78.8 23%

Teleop

185.1 55%

Endgame

72.1 21%

Strengths

· 1701 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score283.9pts

Blue projected score339.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.9
Score range: 254–370
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.3Season APEX604.4

32.6Auto78.8

165.6Teleop185.1

79.6Endgame72.1

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	94
teleop	70	195
endgame	93	86
foul	15	0
total	224	375

Result

Final score

224 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Match videos

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