FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.56 – 152.57

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.4 ±10.5

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 31.34Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 121.23Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 109.99Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±11.6

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 52.67Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 42.45Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 57.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9242, 1506, 3322

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9242, 1506, 3322

Auto

48.7 19%

Teleop

142.1 55%

Endgame

67.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9226, 4838, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9226, 4838, 2834

Auto

26.8 18%

Teleop

78.6 53%

Endgame

43.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.6pts

Blue projected score152.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110
Score range: 126–290
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 149.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.4Season APEX313.9

48.7Auto26.8

142.1Teleop78.6

67.1Endgame43

22Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	46
teleop	81	67
endgame	89	20
foul	0	0
total	207	133

Result

Final score

207 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Match videos

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