FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.16 – 143.13

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.4 ±13.9

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 41.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11455The Iron Patriots

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 23.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 42.34Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.5 ±11.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 73.94Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5090TorqueNados

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 28.98Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8297WIHI Robo Wolves

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 40.21Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 815, 11455, 66

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 815, 11455, 66

Auto

34.8 34%

Teleop

50.7 50%

Endgame

16.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3604, 5090, 8297

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3604, 5090, 8297

Auto

24.8 19%

Teleop

76.2 58%

Endgame

31.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score143.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36
Score range: 80–170
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.4Season APEX367.5

34.8Auto24.8

50.7Teleop76.2

16.7Endgame31.5

4Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	35
teleop	6	50
endgame	12	1
foul	0	0
total	40	86

Result

Final score

40 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Match videos

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