FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.35 – 143.56

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.4 ±10.5

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 35.04Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 124.3Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 113.01Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.3 ±12.1

7660The Byting Irish

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 22.73Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2620Titans

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 50.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 70.75Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9242, 1506, 3322

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9242, 1506, 3322

Auto

47.6 18%

Teleop

146.6 55%

Endgame

71.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7660, 2620, 7692

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7660, 2620, 7692

Auto

44.0 32%

Teleop

61.2 45%

Endgame

31.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score272.4pts

Blue projected score143.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.8
Score range: 117–299
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.4Season APEX197.3

47.6Auto44

146.6Teleop61.2

71.9Endgame31.2

25Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	45
teleop	107	35
endgame	42	36
foul	0	0
total	207	116

Result

Final score

207 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Match videos

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