Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
178.63 – 164.08
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
106 – 157
Prediction missed · off by 39.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±9.9
Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 77.65Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 201Event APEX 67.75Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 33.23Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.9 ±11.6
Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 49.43Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 80Event APEX 64.4Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 50.25Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3604, 1076, 5090
69
/ 100 compatProjected
178.6 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 3604, 1076, 5090
Auto
27.1 16%
Teleop
93.1 55%
Endgame
49.7 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7178, 5567, 308
70
/ 100 compatProjected
164.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 7178, 5567, 308
Auto
24.2 15%
Teleop
91.8 57%
Endgame
45.9 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.55
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score178.6pts
Blue projected score164.1pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 14.5
- Score range
- 137–206
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
476Season APEX192.9
27.1Auto24.2
93.1Teleop91.8
49.7Endgame45.9
21Consistency108
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 37 |
| teleop | 43 | 91 |
| endgame | 33 | 29 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 106 | 157 |
Result
Final score
106 – 157
Prediction missed · off by 39.9 pts
Match videos
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