FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.43 – 159.87

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±11.6

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 51.57Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 41.64Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 56.22Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±9.9

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 71.4Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 63.33Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5090TorqueNados

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 25.14Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9226, 4838, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9226, 4838, 2834

Auto

30.2 21%

Teleop

77.0 53%

Endgame

38.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3604, 1076, 5090

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3604, 1076, 5090

Auto

25.8 17%

Teleop

82.6 54%

Endgame

44.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.4pts

Blue projected score159.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.4
Score range: 122–187
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.9Season APEX476

30.2Auto25.8

77Teleop82.6

38.8Endgame44.3

72Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	33
teleop	27	38
endgame	8	29
foul	35	0
total	89	100

Result

Final score

89 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Match videos

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