FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.62 – 115.32

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.4 ±12.7

2620Titans

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 47.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

66Grizzly Robotics

Season APEX 53Event APEX 40.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 38.39Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.5 ±11.7

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 62.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 35.52Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9148Atlas Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 17.63Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2620, 66, 4838

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2620, 66, 4838

Auto

47.6 38%

Teleop

55.2 44%

Endgame

22.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5567, 3632, 9148

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5567, 3632, 9148

Auto

16.2 14%

Teleop

67.1 59%

Endgame

29.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.3
Score range: 88–154
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.4Season APEX189.5

47.6Auto16.2

55.2Teleop67.1

22.5Endgame29.8

44Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	22
teleop	73	62
endgame	35	52
foul	0	0
total	146	136

Result

Final score

146 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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