FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186 – 212.01

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.7 ±10.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 87.41Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10656RataToaster

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 24.06Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 74.53Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.2 ±11.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 179.38Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX -4.91Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 37.54Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3604, 10656, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3604, 10656, 1076

Auto

21.4 12%

Teleop

112.2 63%

Endgame

45.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 4994, 4838

/ 100 compat

Projected

212 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 67, 4994, 4838

Auto

56.9 28%

Teleop

123.3 60%

Endgame

25.9 13%

Strengths

· 67 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186pts

Blue projected score212pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26
Score range: 160–238
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 146.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.7Season APEX391.2

21.4Auto56.9

112.2Teleop123.3

45.4Endgame25.9

68Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	70
teleop	48	103
endgame	41	58
foul	5	0
total	138	231

Result

Final score

138 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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