FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.7 – 199.33

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.4 ±11.7

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 19.7Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 55.01Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 122.99Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.6 ±12.2

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 28.22Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 124.75Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 46.36Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6101, 7692, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6101, 7692, 1506

Auto

32.6 17%

Teleop

111.3 60%

Endgame

42.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6532, 3322, 9226

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6532, 3322, 9226

Auto

26.1 13%

Teleop

101.3 52%

Endgame

68.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.7pts

Blue projected score199.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.6
Score range: 172–225
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 142.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.4Season APEX265.6

32.6Auto26.1

111.3Teleop101.3

42.9Endgame68.6

81Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	38
teleop	66	92
endgame	45	67
foul	5	0
total	167	197

Result

Final score

167 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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