FIM District Saline Event presented by Oracle

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.58 – 161.7

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 112.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.6 ±11.2

453Rockem Sockem Robotics

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 4.06Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 76.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 28.42Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.7 ±12.4

6057Thunderbots

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 13.51Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 141.53Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4994Kingston Robo-Cards

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 6.66Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 453, 548, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 453, 548, 3632

Auto

12.9 12%

Teleop

56.3 54%

Endgame

35.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6057, 1506, 4994

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6057, 1506, 4994

Auto

29.2 18%

Teleop

103.1 63%

Endgame

30.9 19%

Strengths

· 1506 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.6pts

Blue projected score161.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.1
Score range: 84–187
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.6Season APEX348.7

12.9Auto29.2

56.3Teleop103.1

35.3Endgame30.9

36Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	14
teleop	155	10
endgame	36	10
foul	0	0
total	206	34

Result

Final score

206 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 112.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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